2014 Election results

I've been playing with the county election result numbers by precinct as it gives a good snapshot of the political state of the island.

The mayoral race was never really in question with Barca only winning (by two to one margins) on the north shore. Beyond the Wailua river it was a one-sided victory for the incumbent. In the graphic to the right, precincts are numbers from north shore on the left, roughly going along the highway to Lihue, the south shore, and the west side.

The council race was much more interesting. In the end only two seats changed: newcomer Kaneshiro and past council member Kualii replaced Furfaro (who lost by less than 100 votes) and Bynum.

Here are the numbers by precinct.

	RAPOZO (MR)	KAGAWA (RK)	KANESHIRO (AK)	KUALII (KK)	YUKIMURA (JY)	CHOCK (MC)	HOOSER (GH)	FURFARO (JF)	BRUN (AB)	PERRY (DP)	COWDEN (FC)	BYNUM (TB)	DeCOSTA (BD)	LARANIO (TL)	Grand Total
14-01	523	401	329	362	542	871	865	594	191	349	1,065	803	326	452	7,673
14-02	494	380	398	348	580	838	910	524	213	289	1,059	876	338	566	7,813
14-03	423	349	344	359	344	465	361	349	266	291	402	353	245	411	4,962
14-04	1,649	1,520	1,379	1,265	1,167	1,198	1,147	1,162	848	935	1,123	1,057	763	920	16,133
14-05	643	590	524	479	431	392	392	464	306	388	332	331	275	289	5,836
15-01	1,148	1,073	1,005	916	868	1,084	942	822	640	773	966	940	667	686	12,530
15-02	735	610	635	567	501	307	326	431	375	431	225	296	279	232	5,950
15-03	1,193	1,115	1,063	840	720	468	392	626	615	693	304	356	470	263	9,118
15-04	1,384	1,336	1,333	1,088	878	664	591	804	784	852	462	534	596	357	11,663
15-05	259	219	252	195	186	165	171	133	157	144	143	141	155	86	2,406
16-01	821	767	890	634	631	543	554	514	507	519	515	494	504	308	8,201
16-02	1,387	1,345	1,385	1,032	889	821	760	725	1,070	937	685	676	994	473	13,179
16-03	1,207	1,299	1,214	897	611	415	401	517	984	683	257	348	757	276	9,866
16-04	507	579	459	372	245	209	191	201	424	277	141	159	362	162	4,288
16-05	736	773	710	606	330	280	240	277	691	482	229	224	500	176	6,254
16-06	38	31	51	25	18	10	14	22	49	33	9	14	12	8	334
Grand Total	13,147	12,387	11,971	9,985	8,941	8,730	8,257	8,165	8,120	8,076	7,917	7,602	7,243	5,665	126,206

The numbers are overwhelming to look at for patterns so I did some further analysis. First, look at ranking by precinct which shows how localized support is for many candidates. (Winners in bold.)

	MR	RK	AK	KK	JY	MC	GH	JF	AB	DP	FC	TB	BD	TL
14-01	7	9	12	10	6	2	3	5	14	11	1	4	13	8	Hanalei
14-02	8	10	9	11	5	4	2	7	14	13	1	3	12	6	Kilauea
14-03	2	8	10	6	10	1	5	8	13	12	4	7	14	3	Anahola
14-04	1	2	3	4	6	5	8	7	13	11	9	10	14	12	Kealia
14-05	1	2	3	4	6	7	7	5	12	9	10	11	14	13	Kapaa town
15-01	1	3	4	8	9	2	6	10	14	11	5	7	13	12	Kapaa mauka
15-02	1	3	2	4	5	10	9	6	8	6	14	11	12	13	Hanamaulu
15-03	1	2	3	4	5	10	11	7	8	6	13	12	9	14	Lihue
15-04	1	2	3	4	5	9	11	7	8	6	13	12	10	14	Puhi
15-05	1	3	2	4	5	7	6	13	8	10	11	12	9	14	Poipu
16-01	2	3	1	4	5	7	6	10	11	8	9	13	12	14	Koloa
16-02	1	3	2	5	8	9	10	11	4	7	12	13	6	14	Kalaheo
16-03	3	1	2	5	8	10	11	9	4	7	14	12	6	13	Hanapepe
16-04	2	1	3	5	8	9	11	10	4	7	14	13	6	12	Waimea
16-05	2	1	3	5	8	9	11	10	4	7	12	13	6	14	Kekaha
16-06	3	5	1	6	8	12	9	7	2	4	13	9	11	14	Niihau

Blue for first place in precinct.
Light blue denotes top 7 finish in precinct 
Light red denotes 10th or lower finish in precinct

Most surprising thing I see is that Felicia Cowden owned the north shore winning Hanalei and Kilauea precincts but failed to win a seat, finishing eleventh, since (like Barca) her support was so concentrated north of the Wailua river. Brun and to some extent Perry had strong west side support, dropping off quickly in Lihue and near dead last beyond in the east and north.

The top three winners all had broad island-wide support sharing the top spots in most precincts except north of the Wailua river where support falls off abruptly. Kualii and Yukimura had moderate support quite consistently island-wide, weakest in the north, that combined to win them seats.